by Seungcheol (Shawn) Lee

As South Korea's 2024 General Elections approach, the country is witnessing heightened political fragmentation,  challenging President Yoon Suk Yeol's conservative administration amid internal dissent and changing public sentiment towards his leadership. The election's outcome will also reverberate internationally with implications for South Korea's foreign policy concerning North Korea, China and the United States.

On April 10, 2024, South Korea is poised for a pivotal event—the general elections. These elections will determine the composition of the National Assembly, with voters heading to the polls to elect their representatives. 

The two main contenders are the ruling People Power Party (PPP), led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP). In February 2020, the PPP arose from the merger of several parties, including the Liberal Korea Party, New Conservative Party, and Onward for Future 4.0. The PPP’s ideology includes fiscal conservatism, social conservatism, and economic liberalism. The DP is a centrist-liberal political party, supporting greater human rights, improved relations with North Korea, and an economic policy described as “new progressivism.” As both parties grapple with challenges and uncertainties, the outcome will significantly impact South Korea’s political landscape, governance, and foreign policy.

Domestic Implications

The political landscape in South Korea is currently marked by an increase in new parties and ongoing debates about the electoral system. The two major parties, the PPP and the main opposition DP, are facing internal dissent and leadership crisis. For instance, former PPP leader Lee Jun-seok and former DP lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja agreed to merge their respective parties, establishing the New Reform Party. In February, the disgraced former Justice Minister Cho Kuk established the Korea Innovation Party, a new liberal party that has been impacting the Democratic Party of Korea’s (DP) approval rating, causing fluctuations. Depending on the nomination results of the PPP and the DP, the New Reform Party and Korea Innovation Party’s magnitude of political influence will differ. This fragmentation of the political landscape could lead to a more unpredictable and volatile political environment. 

For President Yoon Suk Yeol, this election will serve as a confidence vote for his conservative administration. Yoon has been wrestling with “low approval ratings and an opposition-controlled parliament that has hindered the implementation of his agendas.” Amidst the prolonged strike by trainee doctors protesting the government’s decision to significantly raise the country’s medical school enrollment quota, Yoon’s approval rating plummeted to 36%. If Yoon’s party (PPP) fails to secure a majority in the 300-seat National Assembly, the President may spend the next three years of his singletree presidency as a lame duck. In the long-term, this outcome could also impact the conservatives’ chances of winning the presidential election in 2027. 

The elections are also taking place against the backdrop of South Korea’s rapidly aging population and the world’s lowest fertility rate. The demographic trend will be reflected in the elections, with the number of voters in their 60s and older being higher than people in their 20s and 30s. Yet, the youth cannot be ignored in this election. Citizens, now in their 20s and 30s, also called “Generation MZ,” are more definitively identified as “non-partisans” or “swing voters.” 

Foreign Policy Implications

The elections will be closely watched by international observers, mainly Washington, Tokyo, and Beijing. The Yoon administration has been taking aggressive steps to strengthen trilateral security cooperation with the United States and Japan in response to ever-growing North Korean nuclear threats. While Yoon’s policies align with the Biden administration’s efforts to create a united front with Asia-Pacific allies, the opposition contends that his hardline North Korea policy may escalate tensions in the peninsula.

If the PPP secures a majority in the upcoming general elections, the National Assembly is likely to adopt a more conservative and assertive foreign policy stance. Mainly, we can expect a closer alignment with the U.S., a tougher stance on North Korea, and bolstered economic ties with South Korea’s key partners.

Yoon has worked to position South Korea to become a “global pivotal state” that plays a bigger role in shaping international norms, promoting democracy, building strategic partnerships, and bridging ties between developed and developing countries. China’s assertive foreign policy will also be a question to be answered from the general elections. Since the Yoon administration has decided to work closely with the U.S., this alignment led to an unprecedented derailing of South Korea’s traditional decoupling strategy, resulting in an estranged economic relationship with China. Amidst the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, effectively navigating the complexities and challenges will be imperative. 

In his 2022 inauguration address, Yoon promised a hard-line approach to North Korea’s military escalations, describing North Korea as the “main enemy” of the South. Correspondingly, Korea-Japan relations have thrived since President Yoon took office. The two leaders, Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida, have held multiple summits, including a landmark meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at Camp David. Security cooperation has deepened, and they now share real-time data during North Korean missile launches. Tokyo has been viewing this robust response positively as Japan seeks to enhance its military capabilities amid rising tensions in the region.

President Yoon has embraced “strategic clarity” in the China-U.S. competition, changing commercial activity and mutual exchange. South Korea's reinstatement on Japan’s "whitelist" for exports signified advancement in some economic relations. The Yoon administration and the PPP have prioritized economic diplomacy with the ‘Global West,’ focusing on strengthening ties within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and cooperation with AUKUS and Quad partners. Moreover, they have highlighted South Korea's pivotal role in global supply chains, especially in technology and manufacturing, and upholding resilience and diversifying sources with like-minded nations. Aligning with the Yoon administration’s agenda, the PPP aims to further decrease dependency on China and bolster supply chain stability through collaboration with South Korea’s allies. Despite some experts foreseeing a deepening of South Korea’s economic ties with its allies, it remains critical to mitigate potential risks or reactions from China and subsequent shifts in regional geopolitics.

South Korea’s foreign policy landscape faces a critical juncture if the DP were to win a majority. Unlike the Yoon administration, which leaned toward alignment with the U.S., the DP seeks a more nuanced approach. They aim to maintain the U.S.-South Korea alliance while simultaneously enhancing economic ties with China. This security-economy decoupling strategy acknowledges the importance of both major powers without taking sides in their geopolitical rivalry. By striking this balance, the DP aims to navigate the complex terrain of global politics. For Japan, heightened uncertainties regarding Korea-Japan relations may take center stage should the DP win a majority. For instance, the DP’s victory might prompt discussions on historical grievances directing Korea-Japan diplomatic agenda to find common ground or acknowledge past wrongs. Despite tensions, Japan and South Korea have strong economic ties, and a DP-led National Assembly may continue to explore avenues for economic collaboration, such as investment partnerships. 

In addition, the DP has consistently advocated for dialogue and engagement with North Korea. With their majority in the National Assembly, we can expect renewed efforts to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean cooperation, joint projects, and humanitarian exchanges may take center stage. However, this stance contrasts sharply with Yoon’s tougher approach toward North Korea. The DP’s commitment to dialogue may send mixed signals to South Korea’s allies, especially given the ongoing security concerns in the region.

Despite the DP’s intentions, practical challenges lie ahead. President Yoon’s use of veto power has thwarted several bills passed by the National Assembly. Such skirmishes, however, will leave the Yoon administration’s foreign policy in a gray area. As a result, South Korea could find itself geopolitically vulnerable, potentially forced to make difficult choices between the U.S. and China. Regardless of the election results, the next three years will be crucial in determining how Seoul navigates these complexities and shapes its role on the global stage.

With less than 30 days remaining, the election will be a litmus test for the public’s sentiment towards the Yoon administration and its policies. It will also reflect the electorate’s views on the direction South Korea should take in the future. The stakes are high, and the outcome could have far-reaching implications for domestic and foreign policy. 

Seungcheol (Shawn) Lee (MIA ’24) specializes in Economic and Political Development and Data Analytics and Quantitative Analysis. Originally from South Korea, Seungcheol has extensive experience in the field of political risk and data analysis, spanning from think tanks to NGOs. His research concentrates on leveraging open-source intelligence to assist organizations navigate political uncertainties.