By Sara Tassadaq

Pakistan had its 12th general elections on February 8, 2024 to elect its federal and provincial legislatures. The political chaos ensued nearly two years ago on March 8, 2022 when former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power after losing a no-confidence vote orchestrated by the opposition parties, allegedly supported by the country’s military establishment, and encouraged by the US government. The country now faces political uncertainty because of allegations of heavy political suppression in the lead up to the election, rigging in the vote count, and of the establishment playing favorites again. This time, the establishment is alleged to be backing the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PMLN) party.

Pakistan’s political history is riddled with complicated civil-military relations. Even though explicit military coups have been left behind, Pakistan’s politics is still heavily influenced by the military - to an extent where its backing has been a deciding factor in election, and making and breaking of governments. On a rare occasion, this interference was even admitted by the former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa in his outgoing speech, with an assurance that the military had finally decided to distance itself from politics. Recent events however, are difficult to reconcile with this claim.

PMLN is one of the three major political parties in the country and is led by Muhammad Nawaz Sharif who has been elected as Prime Minister thrice previously, before he was disqualified for office on corruption charges in 2017 following the infamous Panama Papers leaks. The party was believed to have lost support of the establishment in 2017, a factor that is claimed to have helped Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) come into power in 2018 after Sharif’s disqualification. However, the 2024 elections seem like history repeating itself, with the two rival parties having switched places with one another, with the establishment continuing to act as the fulcrum, as the PTI’s Imran Khan was sentenced to 10 and 14 years in prison on two separate charges within a week before the elections, and his party’s candidates were forced to run as independents. 

On the day of the poll, over 50 million people came out to cast their vote with a palpable fervor - the voter turnout was 48%. While the female voter turnout remained 43% compared to 52% of their male counterparts, the gender gap was reduced from 12.4 million in 2018 (the last general election) to 9.9 million this year. The overall turnout, however, dropped from 51% in 2018 elections. Possible factors for the reduced turnout include terrorist activities including two bomb explosions in the province of Balochistan and target killings of two candidates near to the polling day, as well as mobile and internet service outages in many areas on the day of election despite prior assurances of smooth telecommunication services by the state. The low turnout can also be ascribed to a generally declining confidence among the public in their vote holding any weight as the election process is increasingly viewed as less democratic & more of a power play among different parties.

As per official results by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), announced after a concerning delay of 60 hours, the PTI-affiliated independent candidates won the most seats (93 out of 264 general seats). However, no party was successful in garnering a clear majority needed to form a government. The official announcements met strong reactions as many reported wide discrepancies in the actual and official count. This left the two biggest parties (PTI and PMLN) claiming victory separately. Many PTI-affiliates responded by contesting the election results. Nationwide protests also broke out against what is being seen as collusion between the military establishment and the rival parties to rig the election against PTI. As a result, the ECP had to announce re-polling at various polling stations. On the other hand, PMLN began to approach other parties, including the PPP (the party coming in third) and some of the successful PTI-affiliated independents, in a bid to form a coalition government. As it stands, Imran Khan is still in jail and cannot hold premiership even if PTI were successful in getting a majority. He has also explicitly refused to enter into a coalition with his rivals. Whereas an agreement seems to have been reached between the major rival parties: PMLN, PPP, and MQM, to form a coalition government.

What this would mean for Pakistan is a continuity in the national politics of the traditionally dominant parties (PMLN, PPP, MQM), and likely a familiar face as Prime Minister. Interestingly, PPP has thrown its weight behind PMLN but has indicated it will not take any cabinet position, leaving PMLN likely to lead the new government. Unfortunately, the PMLN lacks a strong manifesto or clear plans of solving the country’s chronic issues despite decades of political experience, and so it seems the latest election seems to have found no winners at all. What is almost certain is that the resulting government will face difficulty in claiming legitimacy as it will be formed out of a fickle alliance of convenience. Its makeup is reminiscent of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) of 2020 which was a coalition of opposition parties (including PMLN, PPP, JUI-F, etc.) against Imran Khan’s government and that later divided due to internal rifts. The strength and longevity of this partnership is, thus, questionable from the outset. 

With an Inflation at 30 percent, a debt-to-GDP ratio of 72 percent, and frequent hikes in power tariffs, the average household in Pakistan is finding it difficult to survive. The country barely avoided a default not long ago. The current situation demands a strong government to take concrete steps to battle the security and economic threats it faces, with the recent resurgence in militant terrorism and the almost imminent need to negotiate yet another deal with the IMF. Comprehensive economic and civil service reforms need to be the top priority of the new government whatever shape it takes.

Internationally, the elections remained a focus of attention as well, with the UN Secretary General and foreign observers including the US, UK and EU expressing concerns over the apparent violations of political rights of Pakistanis. 

The country holds immense geostrategic significance for the West, especially the US, even after the latter’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. While both countries have traditionally been allies, this bilateral relationship has an asymmetric power dynamic, and has seen its share of ups and downs. Most recently, US ‘displeasure’ on Pakistan not taking its desired position over the Ukraine conflict deeply affected Pakistan’s domestic politics. The ouster of Imran Khan by the military establishment was in part, influenced by the sentiments of the US. The entire narrative of PTI has since consisted of opposing intervention in civilian government by a US-backed military establishment - a narrative that has been evidently well-received by the public. While a direct conspiracy against a sitting government in Pakistan by the US was obviously denied, US’ ability to influence foreign governments and initiate regime changes globally is a well known fact.

The US seems to view these recent elections as compromised and many officials have expressed strong sentiments on how the country can play a role in preserving democracy in this much significant South Asian state. However, it is yet to be seen whether this stated position will find a way to help Pakistan strengthen its democracy through institution building and non-interference in its domestic matters or will it end up as yet another diplomatic gesture and it will again be business as usual.

Sara Tassadaq (MIA ‘25) is specializing in Economic and Political Development at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. She is a career civil servant in Pakistan where she has been working in international trade diplomacy.