Will COVID-19 Accelerate Upstate Secession?

As New York City has become the global epicenter of the novel coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing crisis has deepened the cultural fault lines between a vocal subsection of upstate New Yorkers and their downstate counterparts. 

On Friday, April 3, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated in his daily press briefing that he plans to issue an executive order to allow for the reallocation of ventilators across the state from areas that have not yet been hit by the pandemic towards COVID-19 hotspots. In the current moment, that means potentially sending ventilators housed in upstate hospitals to New York City and its environs. 

Almost immediately after this press conference, upstate residents and politicians—mostly from the political right—sounded the alarm of state “confiscation,” culminating with the Twitter hashtag #UpstateLivesMatter and launching a wave of protests across the state. 

Former upstate Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney tweeted of the impending executive order, “we are not second class citizens.” 

Outside Chenango Memorial Hospital in Norwich, a group of three middle-aged men held signs that read “Cuomo’s Gotta Go” as well as another with a hand-drawn ventilator that dared, “Come and Take It.”

As of April 5, no ventilators have been reallocated away from upstate hospitals.

In an email to constituents on April, one upstate senator sounded the alarm when he wrote that in addition to “forcibly seizing ventilators and other equipment to send downstate”—which had not yet occurred—" “Governor Cuomo is transporting Coronavirus patients for treatment Upstate.” In fact, there has been a small-scale transfer of patients. By April 1, New York City had transferred 14 of its roughly 10,590 hospitalized COVID-19 patients to Albany Medical Center. For context, this hospital annually accepts some 16,000 transfer patients, an average of 40 per day in non-pandemic times. 

These examples of alarmist disgust and dissent from elected officials and upstate residents reveal the high level of disdain that some upstate New Yorkers hold for their more cosmopolitan counterparts. The geographic divide, which is typically believed to begin at the northern border of Westchester County, is also a political and cultural one. This tension raises the question: are the modern borders of New York State reaching an expiration date?

Even as tensions across the Empire State are heightened, they are not new. New York State seems particularly well-positioned for inter-state bickering because of the magnitude of differences between New York City and upstate, which are very real.  

According to most economic indicators, there is a nonsignificant gap between New York City and upstate communities. For the past decades, the downstate economy has been booming while upstate counties have reported poorer labor market indicators and budget shortages. While New York City is notorious for its socioeconomic inequality, it is nonetheless a center of capital and tourism, and it enjoys discretionary spending in ways that many rural, struggling counties cannot. While New York State is regularly featured in the top five states for income, if upstate New York is considered alone, its average wage would be just $42,287, ranking it the 44th state for 2015 data compiled by PolitiFact. 

To make matters worse, the recent 2020 Census estimates that, similar to rural areas across the U.S., many areas of upstate New York have experienced population decreases of six to eight percent in the past decade.

Because New York City is a veritable economic powerhouse and home to many influential individuals and businesses, many upstate New Yorkers claim that the state’s political system is overrun by powerful New York City politicians whom they believe impose their beliefs on upstate residents. Over the years, upstate Republicans have opposed measures to legalize gay marriage, reform the cash bail system, ban hydrofracking, and restrict gun sales, many of which have become laws despite their resistance.

However, an analysis of State Senate districts reveals that upstate residents are slightly overrepresented. According to data from the Prison Policy Initiative, nearly all upstate State Senate districts fall below the target residents of 306,072, while districts in and around New York City are all over-populated. Upstate State Senators represent fewer people but have an equal political mandate as downstate senators who systematically represent more constituents. Many upstate Republicans complain to their constituents that both state legislative houses are overrun by big city politicians; if this is true, this is simply because 64% of the state’s population lives in the greater New York City area. The alleged outsize power of downstate politicians is overblown and perhaps even contradictory to the truth. 

In fact, this may help explain why it has recently been downstate politicians that have called for greater political independence from the clutches of upstate New York. From 2003 to 2008, Astoria, Queens Council Member Peter Vallone, Jr. led an effort to ‘unshackle’ downstate from having to subsidize upstate New York. Mr. Vallone’s efforts were bolstered by then Mayor Bloomberg’s testimony in Albany in which he argued that New York City’s taxpayers pay $11 billion more than they get back in state transfers. 

Even groups like the colorfully named Unshackle Upstate have not formally advocated for secession, perhaps due to recognition of the importance of subsidies that flow from wealthy downstate areas to upstate communities.

But in the era of increased political tribalism and the rare Democratic control of both legislative houses, even upstate Republicans are now questioning whether a departure from New York State—and a creation of, say, New Amsterdam—is desired.  

2019 saw three separate efforts led by upstate Republicans to further themselves from their perceived tyranny of downstate control. One effort, led by Senator Daphne Jordan, would have created a commission to look into the economic effects of politically separating upstate from downstate. The second, from Assemblyman Stephen Hawley, would have called for a statewide referendum to split New York into discrete states. The third, led by Assemblyman David DiPietro, would have left the state intact for federal representation purposes but would have split the state into three autonomous governing districts. None of these efforts passed the Democrat-majority legislature. 

As the coronavirus sickens more New Yorkers throughout the state, tensions are likely to continue to rise. In this era of political division, a scarcity of health resources is anticipated to bring out the fiercest tribalists rather than uniting New Yorkers from Montauk to Buffalo. One question that remains is how upstate Republicans will respond if the COVID-19 hotspot shifts upstate, and downstate hospitals are asked to send resources upstate.

Julia Simcoe is a class of 2020 MPP-MPA dual-degree student at SIPA and Sciences Po. She specializes in urban and social policy with a particular interest in rural development.